Harry Potter Movies Will Lead in Toys

Predictions Place Comic Book Heroes Close Behind

By Lutz Muller
January 2009

January 13, 2009 — Most of the very successful toys in 2008 were driven by movies — “Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” “The Dark Knight,” Wall-E” and “Iron Man” – and it hence behooves us to look at what films are awaiting us this year and next.

I asked my buyer friends to rate the toy potential of the movies coming down the pike, on a scale from 1 to 10. This is what they came up with:

Title	Toy Potential	Release Date	Developer	Likely licensee(s): 1st in US; 2nd international
The Pink Panther 2	4	2/6/2009	MGM	Sanrio
Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience	4	2/27/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Watchmen	7	3/6/2009	Warner Bros.	DC Direct
Monsters vs. Aliens	8	3/27/2009	DreamWorks	Toy Quest
The Wolf Man	7	4/3/2009	Universal Pictures	open
Race to Witch Mountain	2	4/9/2009	Disney	Mattel
X-Men Origins: Wolverine	6	5/1/2009	Marvel	Hasbro
The Chronicles of Narnia – The Voyage of the Dawn Treader	5	5/1/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Hannah Montana: The Movie	7	5/5/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific/Mattel
Star Trek	8	5/8/2009	Viacom	Playmates/Corgi
Terminator: Salvation	8	5/22/2009	Warner Bros.	Playmates
UP	5	6/12/2009	Disney	Playmates
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	9	6/26/2009	Hasbro	Hasbro
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	8	7/1/2009	20th Century Fox	Mattel
Astro Boy	3	7/1/2009	Imagi Animation	WowWee
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	10	7/7/2009	Warner Bros.	NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Land of the Lost	5	7/17/2009	Universal Pictures	Jakks Pacific
G-Force 5	5	7/24/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
He-Man: Masters of the Universe	8	8/1/2009	Warner Bros.	Mattel
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra	9	8/7/2009	Hasbro	Hasbro
Where the Wild Things Are 2	7	9/9/2009	Warner Bros.	McFarlane Toys
Avatar 8	8	12/17/2009	20th Century Fox	Mattel
The Princess and the Frog	5	12/25/2009	Disney	Mattel
Toy Story 3	9	1/8/2010	Disney	Mattel
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles	8	3/4/2010	Imagi Animation	Playmates
Alice in Wonderland	3	3/19/2010	Disney	Mattel
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2	5	3/19/2010	20th Century Fox	Mattel
Iron Man 2	8	4/30/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Spider-Man 4	10	5/1/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Shrek Goes Fourth	7	5/21/2010	DreamWorks	McFarlane Toys
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time	5	5/28/2010	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Thor	6	6/4/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	10	11/1/2010	Warner Bros.	NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Rapunzel	6	12/25/2010	Disney	Mattel

For both 2009 and 2010, the buyers rated the Harry Potter entries as the top movies in terms of toy potential.

In order to validate their judgment, I looked at blog metrics denoting consumer interest, comparing the three top-rated movies for 2009. These metrics confirm the ratings:

I also consulted Times Online (the online version of the venerable “Times” of London) ] in regard to their projections for the 50 biggest blockbusters in 2009.

This is how they rated some of the movies given above:

Times Rank*	Movie	Buyer Weight**
1	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	10
3	Star Trek	8
4	Watchmen	7
5	X-Men Origins: Wolverine	6
7	Avatar	8
8	Monsters vs. Aliens	8
9	Terminator: Salvation	8
13	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	9
22	Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	8
25	Hannah Montana: The Movie	7
30	The Wolf Man	7
35	G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra	9

* 1 is best
** 10 is best

The buyers and the “Times” seem to agree in principle on which movies will be the most influential this year.