November 8, 2026
Independent toy stores head into December with three facts on their side: shoppers want gifts that mean something, squishies are moving units, and parents worry about knockoffs. Here is what the latest reports from retailers, toy manufacturers, and safety groups show, and what to do with it on your sales floor.
Walmart's 2026 Holiday Trend Report found that 53.3% of shoppers say meaning to the recipient is a leading factor when they choose a gift, and 54% get gift ideas from friends and family. That favors stores where staff know the products and can match a toy to a child.
The same report shows when shoppers expect to do most of their holiday buying: 38.4% from October through the first half of November, 19.9% from Thanksgiving weekend through Cyber Monday, 10.2% from December 1–15, and 1.9% on December 16 or later. About one in eight shoppers still plan to do most of their buying in December.
Circana's CPG Demand Signals report says U.S. General Merchandise saw unit growth in recent weeks, spurred by toys and led by demand for squishies.
Wholesale data points the same way. Faire, the wholesale marketplace used by many independent stores, says Advent calendar orders are up 63% year over year, and toy and squishy calendars went from barely existing a year ago to more than half of all Advent calendar spend on its platform. Faire itself notes that much of that jump comes from a very low starting point, so it advises stocking conservatively and reordering into what sells.
The Toy Association opened its 6th annual Toy Safety Awareness Month on November 2 with a Wakefield Research survey of 1,000 U.S. parents:
The group also urges families to check for recalls before passing along secondhand toys. A store that buys directly from toy manufacturers and authorized distributors can say so plainly.
Mass-market best sellers will be heavily promoted. Price-matching them is a losing game for most specialty stores.
Q3 profits at the big toy manufacturers got a one-time lift. Mattel's November 5 results credited $88 million of tariff refunds for most of its gross-margin gain, while inflation and higher royalties more than offset other benefits; Mattel also lowered its full-year outlook. Hasbro's October 20 results included about $55 million of tariff refunds, and management said Q4 margins will step down from Q3. JAKKS Pacific reported October 22 that Q3 net sales rose 20% to $254.2 million.
Refunds don't recur, so don't plan on wholesale costs falling. Budget Q4 reorders carefully.
On November 5, bingo, Care Bears, the Pokémon Trading Card Game, and the slide joined the National Toy Hall of Fame, a good hook for a "classics" display aimed at parents and adult collectors.
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