Independent toy stores head into December with three facts on their side: shoppers want gifts that mean something, squishies are moving units, and parents worry about knockoffs. Here is what the latest reports from retailers, toy manufacturers, and safety groups show, and what to do with it on your sales floor.
Shoppers want meaning, and they ask people they trust
Walmart's 2026 Holiday Trend Report found that 53.3% of shoppers say meaning to the recipient is a leading factor when they choose a gift, and 54% get gift ideas from friends and family. That favors stores where staff know the products and can match a toy to a child.
The same report shows when shoppers expect to do most of their holiday buying: 38.4% from October through the first half of November, 19.9% from Thanksgiving weekend through Cyber Monday, 10.2% from December 1–15, and 1.9% on December 16 or later. About one in eight shoppers still plan to do most of their buying in December.
Squishies and Advent calendars are hot
Circana's CPG Demand Signals report says U.S. General Merchandise saw unit growth in recent weeks, spurred by toys and led by demand for squishies.
NeeDoh squishies from toy manufacturer Schylling. Image: Schylling
Wholesale data points the same way. Faire, the wholesale marketplace used by many independent stores, says Advent calendar orders are up 63% year over year, and toy and squishy calendars went from barely existing a year ago to more than half of all Advent calendar spend on its platform. Faire itself notes that much of that jump comes from a very low starting point, so it advises stocking conservatively and reordering into what sells.
87% say a counterfeit or knockoff toy's lower price isn't worth the potential safety risk to their child.
Yet 84% believe knockoff squishy toys are safe for play. Knockoffs can tear or burst, releasing small parts or filling, and may contain prohibited chemicals.
35% of parents think toy age recommendations are merely suggestions; among Baby Boomers, many of whom are now grandparents, it is 49%.
The group also urges families to check for recalls before passing along secondhand toys. A store that buys directly from toy manufacturers and authorized distributors can say so plainly.
What big-box stores are doing
Target ran Early Black Friday deals November 5–7, including 40% off select toys. Its Bullseye's Top 50 Must-Have Toys list (October 5) includes the Barbie DreamHouse and Nintendo Switch 2, and more than half the list is Target-exclusive.
Mass-market best sellers will be heavily promoted. Price-matching them is a losing game for most specialty stores.
What toy manufacturers' earnings say about costs
Q3 profits at the big toy manufacturers got a one-time lift. Mattel's November 5 results credited $88 million of tariff refunds for most of its gross-margin gain, while inflation and higher royalties more than offset other benefits; Mattel also lowered its full-year outlook. Hasbro's October 20 results included about $55 million of tariff refunds, and management said Q4 margins will step down from Q3. JAKKS Pacific reported October 22 that Q3 net sales rose 20% to $254.2 million.
Refunds don't recur, so don't plan on wholesale costs falling. Budget Q4 reorders carefully.
Classics still sell
On November 5, bingo, Care Bears, the Pokémon Trading Card Game, and the slide joined the National Toy Hall of Fame, a good hook for a "classics" display aimed at parents and adult collectors.
The 2026 National Toy Hall of Fame class. Image: The Strong National Museum of Play
Sell the story. 53.3% of shoppers prize a gift's meaning. Train staff to ask about the child and recommend, not just ring up.
Stay stocked for December. About 12% of shoppers plan to do most of their buying after December 1. Keep bestsellers and hours strong.
Put squishies up front. They're driving U.S. unit growth. Add a sign: "Authentic, from the toy manufacturer." 84% of parents think knockoffs are safe.
Offer age-label help. 49% of Baby Boomers see age labels as suggestions. A quick "Is this safe for a 2-year-old?" check builds loyalty with grandparents.
Don't fight big-box promos. Give prime shelf space to specialty items that aren't on Target's or Walmart's deal pages.
Watch reorder costs. Toy manufacturers' Q3 tariff refunds were one-time, and inflation and royalty pressure remain.
As an Amazon Associate, TDmonthly earns from qualifying purchases.
Free toy industry news by email
New toys, trends and industry news from The ToyDirectory Intelligence Report.
Free to join on Substack; a paid plan is optional. Unsubscribe anytime.
Writer's Bio: Laura N. Larsson covers toy news and trends for TDmonthly. She follows new launches, licensing deals and what retailers are putting on shelves, and she talks with toy manufacturers and store buyers about what is actually selling. Her roundups aim to give retailers, manufacturers and inventors a quick, practical read on where the toy business is heading, with links to the companies and products behind each story. Read more articles by this author
Writer's Bio: Laura N. Larsson covers toy news and trends for TDmonthly. She follows new launches, licensing deals and what retailers are putting on shelves, and she talks with toy manufacturers and store buyers about what is actually selling. Her roundups aim to give retailers, manufacturers and inventors a quick, practical read on where the toy business is heading, with links to the companies and products behind each story. 
