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January 2008 | Vol. VII - No. 1


Gamers to Buy Software First, Consoles Second

Nintendo May Need Console-ation in ‘08

Buyers at the large video game retail chains recently predicted that although consoles drove software sales in 2007, the converse will occur in 2008 as soon as supply of the Nintendo Wii catches up with demand. This year, instead of buying the video game console first and then looking for games, consumers will buy consoles to operate the games they most want.

At this point, blog metrics demonstrate that Wii is still reigning supreme. However, Sony’s PS3, written off as a failure a year ago, is beginning to show strength. This statement is confirmed by the buyers.

What games will consumers look for? This list projects the buyers’ guesses for the top-20, best-selling video games of 2008:

Rank Name of Game Consoles Publisher Release Date
1 Grand Theft Auto IV 360, PS3 Take Two 04/11/2008
2 Halo Wars 360 Microsoft 07/01/2008
3 Spore PC Electronic Arts 05/01/2008
4 Saints Row 2 360, PS3 THQ 12/31/2008
5 Metal Gear Solid PS3 Konami 06/17/2008
6 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue PS3 Sony 03/10/2008
7 Smash Bros Brawl Wii Nintendo 02/10/2008
8 Fall Out 3 PS3 Bethesda/Activision 09/09/2008
9 Starwars: Force Unleashed 360 Lucas Arts 04/08/2008
10 World of WarCraft, Wrath
of the Lich King
PC Blizzard/ Activision 09/09/2008
11 Final Fantasy XIII PS3 Square Enix 12/01/2008
12 Splinter Cell Conviction 360 Ubisoft 06/03/2008
13 The Club 360, PC Sega 02/19/2008
14 Alan Wake 360 Remedy 12/31/2008
15 Ghostbusters PS3, Wii,
360, PC
Sierra/ Activision 10/07/2008
16 Battlefield Bad Company 360, PS3 Electronic Arts 03/24/2008
17 Army of Two 360, PS3 Electronic Arts 03/04/2008
18 Kill Zone PS3 Sony 04/07/2008
19 Devil May Cry 360, PS3 Capcom 02/05/2008
20 Starcraft II PC Blizzard/Activision 10/01/2008

Based on this chart, the PS3 and Microsoft’s Xbox 360 are pretty much tied, with the Wii a very distant third.

Not only is the Wii behind, but Nintendo’s slated software production is considerably low. Of 66 games coming out this year designed for play on the Wii, only four are supplied by Nintendo. And for the DS, only four of 84 games to be released are produced by Nintendo.

Without a major new hardware release, very few top games driving Wii or DS sales, and virtually no software releases of their own this year, I cannot see Nintendo repeating its stellar 2007 performance.

Lutz MullerWriter's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In  the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at Read more articles by this author


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