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Harry Potter Movies Will Lead in Toys

Predictions Place Comic Book Heroes Close Behind

January 13, 2009 — Most of the very successful toys in 2008 were driven by movies — “Star Wars: The Clone Wars,” “The Dark Knight,” Wall-E” and “Iron Man” – and it hence behooves us to look at what films are awaiting us this year and next.

I asked my buyer friends to rate the toy potential of the movies coming down the pike, on a scale from 1 to 10. This is what they came up with:

Title	Toy Potential	Release Date	Developer	Likely licensee(s): 1st in US; 2nd international
The Pink Panther 2	4	2/6/2009	MGM	Sanrio
Jonas Brothers: The 3-D Concert Experience	4	2/27/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Watchmen	7	3/6/2009	Warner Bros.	DC Direct
Monsters vs. Aliens	8	3/27/2009	DreamWorks	Toy Quest
The Wolf Man	7	4/3/2009	Universal Pictures	open
Race to Witch Mountain	2	4/9/2009	Disney	Mattel
X-Men Origins: Wolverine	6	5/1/2009	Marvel	Hasbro
The Chronicles of Narnia – The Voyage of the Dawn Treader	5	5/1/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Hannah Montana: The Movie	7	5/5/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific/Mattel
Star Trek	8	5/8/2009	Viacom	Playmates/Corgi
Terminator: Salvation	8	5/22/2009	Warner Bros.	Playmates
UP	5	6/12/2009	Disney	Playmates
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	9	6/26/2009	Hasbro	Hasbro
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	8	7/1/2009	20th Century Fox	Mattel
Astro Boy	3	7/1/2009	Imagi Animation	WowWee
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	10	7/7/2009	Warner Bros.	NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Land of the Lost	5	7/17/2009	Universal Pictures	Jakks Pacific
G-Force 5	5	7/24/2009	Disney	Jakks Pacific
He-Man: Masters of the Universe	8	8/1/2009	Warner Bros.	Mattel
G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra	9	8/7/2009	Hasbro	Hasbro
Where the Wild Things Are 2	7	9/9/2009	Warner Bros.	McFarlane Toys
Avatar 8	8	12/17/2009	20th Century Fox	Mattel
The Princess and the Frog	5	12/25/2009	Disney	Mattel
Toy Story 3	9	1/8/2010	Disney	Mattel
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles	8	3/4/2010	Imagi Animation	Playmates
Alice in Wonderland	3	3/19/2010	Disney	Mattel
Alvin and the Chipmunks 2	5	3/19/2010	20th Century Fox	Mattel
Iron Man 2	8	4/30/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Spider-Man 4	10	5/1/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Shrek Goes Fourth	7	5/21/2010	DreamWorks	McFarlane Toys
Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time	5	5/28/2010	Disney	Jakks Pacific
Thor	6	6/4/2010	Marvel	Hasbro
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1	10	11/1/2010	Warner Bros.	NECA (int'l)/Corgi (Europe)
Rapunzel	6	12/25/2010	Disney	Mattel

For both 2009 and 2010, the buyers rated the Harry Potter entries as the top movies in terms of toy potential.

In order to validate their judgment, I looked at blog metrics denoting consumer interest, comparing the three top-rated movies for 2009. These metrics confirm the ratings:


I also consulted Times Online (the online version of the venerable “Times” of London) ] in regard to their projections for the 50 biggest blockbusters in 2009.

This is how they rated some of the movies given above:

Times Rank*	Movie	Buyer Weight**
1	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	10
3	Star Trek	8
4	Watchmen	7
5	X-Men Origins: Wolverine	6
7	Avatar	8
8	Monsters vs. Aliens	8
9	Terminator: Salvation	8
13	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	9
22	Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	8
25	Hannah Montana: The Movie	7
30	The Wolf Man	7
35	G.I. Joe: Rise of Cobra	9

* 1 is best
** 10 is best

The buyers and the “Times” seem to agree in principle on which movies will be the most influential this year.

Writer's Bio: Lutz Muller is a Swiss who has lived on five continents. In  the United States, he was the CEO for four manufacturing companies, including two in the toy industry. Since 2002, he has provided competitive intelligence on the toy and video game market to manufacturers and financial institutions coast-to-coast. He gets his information from his retailer panel, from big-box buyers and his many friends in the industry. If anything happens, he is usually the first to know. Read more on his website at www.klosterstrading.com. Read more articles by this author

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